The Fractional Fallacy: Shark Tank Sharks Understand It. Do You?

You hear it on Shark Tank all the time. “The market for xyz is millions of dollars. If we can get just 5% percentage of that market, we will make millions.” The sharks roll their eyes. What’s wrong with this logic?

The problem with this line of thinking is what I call the “fractional fallacy.” Basing projections for success on acquiring a small fraction of a large market, sounds great. But it is flawed logic.

The size of the market, and the idea that you only need to penetrate that market in a small way to succeed oversimplifies the challenges of starting a business. It ignores the fact that any new business idea has multiple variables. The size of the market isn’t the only thing that matters. In fact, it may be one of the least important considerations for initial success.

First, the product must be needed and wanted. These two variables tend to be binary. Either the product is desirable or it is not, at least for widespread adoption. And this may be theĀ  hardest aspect of starting a new business to predict.

Success relies on a number of variables that align in a way that the customer places value in what you have to offer. Then, and only then, is the market size relevant. If no one wants what your making, the billions of dollars flowing in the overall market is irrelevant.

Fail Fantastically. Succeed Spectacularly.

Fail Fantastically. Succeed Spectacularly. Nothing in between matters.

You will know it’s the right thing, when your willing to fail trying to do it. If it isn’t worth pouring everything you’ve got into it, regardless of whether you win or lose, it isn’t worth pursuing.

Find something you believe in, and then go all out for it.

If Your Bored . . .

Are you bored? You know the solution. Life is too short to waste time. Start that project, business, or trip you have been putting off. Inertia is the primary impediment to success. You have to start to finish. Why aren’t you starting?

If your bored, you simply aren’t taking enough risks.

Say “No” To Your Good Ideas

Everybody has ideas. In fact, many people have new good ideas everyday. And that’s a problem when it comes to making something a success.

The difference between great entrepreneurs and the ones that never really get much off the ground, is being able to say “no” to good ideas. Focus on ten tasks, and you’ll get ten partially done projects. Choose one thing to focus on, and you’ll be able to apply all of your energy to make that one thing successful.

To combat “idea fatigue” I have developed a system called – Good Idea? Great Idea? When I have an idea I am interested in pursuing I ask a couple people that I respect whether it is a good idea or a great idea. If they agree that it is a good idea, I throw it out. I only spend time pursuing things that pass the great idea test. Everything else gets left on the table.

Say no to good ideas. So the great ones can succeed. #takerisksbeyou