All of My Failures Are Due to Self-Inflicted Expectations
Einstein said that the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest. But I think he got it wrong. The most powerful force is – time. It impacts everything we do. And the older we get the more we see it’s effects.
Take for example, the cost of products. Order a birthday cake today and you’ll be surprised how thin it is. They just aren’t as tall as they once were. The price of the cake hasn’t changed. So why the short cake? Inflation. As the cost of goods increases over time, either the price of the product has to increase, or you have to get less of it. With cakes, for the same $20 today, you get less cake than you did twenty years ago.
Without the long term perspective of time, no one would notice. But those of us that have been around a while can’t be fooled.
So which is the force, inflation or time? Both. But as strong as inflation and interest are, they have a small impact in any one period. But add the force of time, and the effects of these other factors are magnified, or compounded, quickly.
Fail Fantastically. Succeed Spectacularly. Nothing in between matters.
You will know it’s the right thing, when your willing to fail trying to do it. If it isn’t worth pouring everything you’ve got into it, regardless of whether you win or lose, it isn’t worth pursuing.
Find something you believe in, and then go all out for it.
Are you bored? You know the solution. Life is too short to waste time. Start that project, business, or trip you have been putting off. Inertia is the primary impediment to success. You have to start to finish. Why aren’t you starting?
If your bored, you simply aren’t taking enough risks.
Everybody has ideas. In fact, many people have new good ideas everyday. And that’s a problem when it comes to making something a success.
The difference between great entrepreneurs and the ones that never really get much off the ground, is being able to say “no” to good ideas. Focus on ten tasks, and you’ll get ten partially done projects. Choose one thing to focus on, and you’ll be able to apply all of your energy to make that one thing successful.
To combat “idea fatigue” I have developed a system called – Good Idea? Great Idea? When I have an idea I am interested in pursuing I ask a couple people that I respect whether it is a good idea or a great idea. If they agree that it is a good idea, I throw it out. I only spend time pursuing things that pass the great idea test. Everything else gets left on the table.
Say no to good ideas. So the great ones can succeed. #takerisksbeyou
Without a goal, you can’t score.
– Casey Neistat
At least not a defined one.
50 years ago, if you wanted to succeed you graduated high school, went to college, and got a job at a large company. That was then.
Today there is no defined path to success. There are thousands of ways to be successful. Large companies, small companies. Start your own business. Work from home. Follow your dream. Live in a van traveling the world. The options are endless. There is no clear path. Anybody can be the next Steve Jobs, Beyonce, or Anybody they want to be. #takerisksbeyou
What’s the most powerful force in the universe?
According to Albert Einstein – Compound interest. He said “compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” The difference is savings that time makes is amazing, no matter what the amount, my advice is always – start saving as early as possible. Even a five year head start can result in a 50% difference is how much the savings can grow to over the years.
Once you realize that you have time to fail, everything becomes possible. Thinking you need a bigger house, faster car, more money, all right now, will rob you of the opportunity to take risks. It will deny you the chance to do what you need to do to succeed, which is to try something so crazy you are sure to fail first.
That’s how you learn to succeed. Setting your eyes and goals on things that require you to fail first, just to get the chance to succeed. Be patient. Fail often.
Failure is a prerequisite to success.
What is risk?
Risk = Uncertainty. If the outcome of an activity is unknown, it is risky. But, that risk isn’t necessarily just associated with a bad outcome. The outcome could be that the project produces a positive return or a negative return. The stock price could go up, stay the same, or go down. It isn’t the fact that it could be a bad outcome that makes something risky. Rather, if the outcome is unknown, there is risk.
But, risk isn’t always a bad thing. If there isn’t risk, there generally isn’t a possible positive outcome. At least not one worth pursuing. So, risk can be good. As long as the risk itself is known and identifiable, a rational decision can be made.
However, I see a lot of people identify risk and then shy away from the choice, investment, project, or activity. This can often lead to the wrong decision. After all, no risk, no return. If we didn’t take any risks in life, we wouldn’t even learn to walk. To move past where you are today, chances are your going to have to take a risk here and there. In my view, if I had one change to make to my past, it would be that I wish I had taken more risks. Not less.
The best approach to considering risk is to attempt to calculate the real risk and then make a good decision. To calculate the real risk you should take the probability of the risk into account. For example, if there is a risk of losing $1,000 this sounds bad, right? But, if there is only a 10% chance that the loss will happen, it really isn’t very risky after all.
When considering risk, it is important to determine the “weighted risk,” if possible. To do this, you simply multiply the maximum downside loss, by the probability of the loss occurring. In the above example, the maximum downside is $1,000. And the chance of the loss occurring is 10%. So, the weighted risk is = $1,000 x 10% = $100. It is’t the $1,000 that should be the decision-making metric. Rather the weighted risk of $100 is the relevant risk. And those two numbers are very different. They can lead to very different decisions. This approach can be applied to everything from what company to invest in, to where to go for dinner. Everything is risky. Embrace it.
What you are probably thinking now is – determining the maximum loss is normally pretty easy. But, how do you quantify the probability of the loss? Not to put too fine a point on it, but – You guess. Sure, you can apply fancy statistical methods. But, you don’t have to. Those methods often include assumptions, which are just guesses too. Nobody knows what the future holds. Everybody is guessing. And if you are familiar with the decision at hand, you are likely in just as good of a position to make an educated guess as anybody else. Why not? Everybody is guessing anyway. Take Risks. Be You.